Stop Racing, Start Winning: The Tortoise's Guide to Billion-Dollar Decisions

Master the four-step process that turns plodders into market leaders

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Ever wonder how some people seem to make all the right moves? Like they've got a crystal ball or something? Well, buckle up because I'm about to spill the beans on decision-making magic that's been hiding in plain sight for centuries.

Remember that old tortoise and hare story? Yeah, the one you read to your kids. Well, forget everything you thought you knew about it. The real MVP of that tale isn't slow and steady – it's strategic and swift.

See, our shell-wearing friend isn't winning because he's slow. He's winning because he's mastered a four-step decision-making process that would make Silicon Valley's finest weep with envy. It goes like this: Stop, Think, Choose, Act. Miss a step, and you're toast. It's that simple. And I can tell you, I used to miss those steps often!

This isn't some new-age mumbo jumbo. It's the secret sauce of modern-day tortoises like Bezos, Buffett, and Musk. They've cracked the code, and now you're about to join the club.

So, let's dive in and see how you can make your way to the finish line, leaving those impulse-driven hares in your dust.

Stop

"I like to describe sitting as enjoying doing nothing." - Thich Nhat Hanh in "How to Sit"

"Facts were to be faced, not fought." - Jack Reacher in Bad Luck And Trouble

Whoa there, speed racer! Before you zoom off, let's talk about the power of hitting the brakes. In a world that's always screaming, "Go! Go! Go!", the ability to stop is your secret weapon. It's not about being slow; it's about being smart.

If you don’t stop doing it, you won’t be able to create empty space. Without empty space, you’re not able to generate any insights. You’ll be stuck in making common decisions (but who needs you for those nowadays? AI is pretty good at making common default choices.)

Sleep well

Think sleep is for the weak? Think again. Jeff Bezos swears by his 8 hours, saying, "I'm more alert, and I think more clearly." So, ditch the "I'll sleep when I'm dead" mentality and get some quality shut-eye. Your decision-making muscles will thank you.

Be mindful

Ray Dalio, the hedge fund wizard, starts every day with meditation. Why? Because it's like a mental gym for your pause button. Try it: 10 minutes a day of sitting and breathing. No, you won't turn into a monk, but you might just turn into a decision-making ninja.

Clear your mind

Tim Ferriss, the guy who wrote "The 4-Hour Work Week" (while the rest of us were working 40), uses a technique called "fear-setting." It's like spring cleaning for your brain. Write down your fears, then your solutions. Suddenly, that cluttered mind is as clear as a bell. Whatever technique you use, find a empty space.

Shed all assumptions

Remember when everyone thought the earth was flat? Yeah, assumptions are like that – often wrong and always limiting. Elon Musk calls it "reasoning from first principles." Strip away what you think you know and start fresh. It's like hitting the reset button on your brain. Like the assumption that electric cars don’t make sense or that it isn’t possible to go to Mars any time soon.

Once you’re options are thrown out of the window, your assumptions cast away, you won’t be able to stop yourself from starting to think!

Think

"When our mindfulness and concentration are powerful, we can make a breakthrough and get an insight." - Thich Nhat Hanh in "How to Focus"

Alright, you've stopped. Now it's time to fire up those neurons and do some heavy mental lifting. This isn't about quick fixes or gut feelings. It's about diving deep and surfacing with gold.

With Thinking, you’re really doing two things at once in an intermingled process. You’re diverging, brainstorming random options like crazy, and converging, narrowing down those options.

On a different level, you’re jumping back and forth between your problem space and the solution space, often emerging with problem-solution packages that cover an entirely different problem than the one you’ve started with. And that’s good!

Find a good problem

Elon Musk is famous for being a micromanager, but what I see is attention to detail. To the details of the questions that need to be solved in the first place. He spends his time looking for the “least wrong question” first, before starting the process of solving.

Find an easy problem

Warren Buffett doesn't just solve problems; he finds the right ones to solve. He says, "I don't look to jump over 7-foot bars: I look around for 1-foot bars that I can step over." So, before you start solving, make sure you're tackling the right problem.

Turn a solution into another problem

Jeff Bezos didn't stop at selling books online. He asked, "What if we sold everything?" Then he asked, "What if we provided the infrastructure for others to sell?" Each solution became a new problem to solve. Keep pushing, keep questioning. Jeff actually pursued all of those options, but you don’t have to. You can go back and forth between problem and solution space as often as you want. In fact, Jeff really wanted to build the Everything store from day one (a great solution) but realized he needed a starting point. He went into his problem space, where he saw the exponential growth of the internet, and then zoomed in on a different solution: selling books online. Ping, Pong.

Assume you don't have the solution yet

Ray Dalio has a principle: "Two people who collaborate well will be twice as effective as either one alone." Why? Because assuming you don't have all the answers opens you up to better solutions. So, check your ego at the door and embrace not knowing.

Use data

Elon Musk doesn't just think big; he thinks with data. When designing rockets, he and his team calculated that they could make their own parts for 10% of the usual cost. Data turned a crazy idea into a game-changing reality. So, arm yourself with facts, not just hunches.

Never too much

Tim Ferriss is famous for his "minimum effective dose" principle. It's about finding the smallest input to produce the desired outcome. In thinking, this means knowing when you've got enough to move forward. Don't get stuck in analysis paralysis. You still want to be at the finish line before the hare arrives!

Know your one-way and two-way doors

Bezos classifies decisions into one-way doors (irreversible) and two-way doors (reversible). Most decisions are two-way doors, so don't waste time overthinking them. But for those one-way doors? Take all the time you need; you cannot overthink one-way door decisions.

Naturally, Thinking leads to focus. Every cycle of converging leads into thinking about the outcomes and the evaluation mechanisms, in this way, Thinking pushes you to Choose. But while there’s a natural tendency to go into the Choosing stage early, it is detrimental to go in too early. Try to separate those stages as much as possible. Keep the problem framing and discover good problem-solution packages, before entering the true Choosing stage.

Choose

Now we're getting to the good stuff. You've stopped, you've thought, and now it's time to pull the trigger. But hold up – choosing isn't just about picking an option. It's about committing to a path.

Buffett puts it this way: "The difference between successful people and really successful people is that really successful people say no to almost everything." Choosing is as much about what you don't do as what you do.

Choosing means you construct your evaluation function first; you enhance every option by building in action and a way to track your success.

Here's how to choose like a boss:

Align with your values

Ray Dalio has a set of principles that guide all his decisions. What are yours? If a choice doesn't align with your core values, it's not the right choice, no matter how shiny it looks. Use your principles to deduce good evaluation criteria for your decision.

Consider the second and third-order consequences

Elon Musk doesn't just think about the immediate impact of his choices. He considers the domino effect. What happens after what happens? Play chess, not checkers.

Use a decision journal

Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman suggests keeping a decision journal. Write down what you expect to happen and why. It'll make you more thoughtful and help you learn from your choices over time. It means you can evaluate your Choosing and choose better next time, it means you get to understand your evaluation function, learn and progress.

Act

You've made your choice. Now it's time to channel your inner hare and sprint. Remember, our tortoise friend didn't win by being slow – he won by acting decisively when it counted.

Here's how to act like you mean it:

Commit fully

Tech people call it "disagree and commit." Once a decision is made, even if it wasn't your preferred option, go all in. Half-hearted execution is worse than no execution at all. Funnily, most tech people think the “disagree and commit” culture is about the disagreeing part. It is not; it’s about action, and that’s your commitment to an option you don’t like.

Build in accountability

Tim Ferriss is big on this. Tell people about your decision and your plan. It's harder to back out when others are watching. Plus, you might get some unexpected support. Build in tracking, and do whatever you can to make your progress visible.

Iterate quickly

Musk's companies are known for rapid iteration. Launch, learn, adjust, repeat. Your first action doesn't have to be perfect; it just has to be. Unless it’s a one-way door, then perfection is your friend.

Celebrate the process, not just the outcome

Win or lose, if you followed the process – Stop, Think, Choose, Act – you've already won. Ray Dalio talks about this in terms of "creating evolution." Every decision is a chance to get better at deciding.

So there you have it, folks. The billionaire tortoise's guide to game-changing decisions. It's not about being the fastest out of the gate. It's about knowing when to stop, how to think, what to choose, and how to act.

Next time you're faced with a decision, big or small, remember: Stop. Think. Choose. Act. Master this process, and you'll be crossing finish lines you never even dreamed of. Now, go forth and decide like a boss!