... is here.... What Will Happen in 2025
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Remember when poker was just about gut feelings and reading faces? Then came the quants with their solvers and GTO strategies, and suddenly old-school pros had to adapt or fade away. I think we're about to see similar transformations across the tech landscape in 2025.
Not because I'm particularly qualified to predict the future (I'm not), but because sometimes you need to write things down to see patterns emerge. Like a trader plotting support levels, the trends become clearer when you step back and look at the whole picture.
Here's what I see coming:
The Big Picture First
AI won't just assist; it'll take over entire domains
The real disruption will come from unexpected places
Speed of adoption will create weird asymmetries in the market
Let's break this down into specifics:
1. SQL Becomes Machine Territory Remember how algorithmic trading transformed forex markets? That's what's about to happen to SQL. By the end of 2025, most SQL queries will be machine-generated. Companies like dbt Labs might try to hold onto the "craft" of SQL writing - like traditional forex traders initially resisted algorithms - but when machines consistently outperform humans in both speed and accuracy, resistance becomes futile.
2. BI Tools Finally Evolve (or Die) I've written about how dashboards suck, and 2025 might finally bring the revolution we need. Just as crypto brought new financial primitives to challenge traditional banking, AI-first players will bring new primitives to challenge traditional BI. Tableau, Looker, and others will face their "BlackBerry moment" - either adapt to the AI-first world or become irrelevant.
3. Conversational AI Becomes the New Excel Nine out of ten companies with more than 20 employees will have ChatGPT-like tools as standard equipment. Even in GDPR-heavy regions like Germany, the tide will be unstoppable. It's like the early days of spreadsheet software - at first, it was a luxury; then suddenly, you couldn't do business without it.
4. Data Mesh Goes Quiet (Yes, I Wrote a Book About It) Sometimes you have to admit when a trend is fading. The data mesh concept will likely disappear from the hype cycles - not because it's wrong, but because hype cycles move faster than actual implementation cycles. Like many good technical concepts before it, it'll probably live on in practice while the discussion moves elsewhere.
5. Web3 Grows Underground Think of early internet protocols - they didn't explode overnight. They slowly became part of everything. Web3 in 2025 will be similar - no flashy comeback, just steady integration into infrastructure.
6. AI-Written Bestsellers Change Publishing We'll see the first new AI-assisted New York Times bestseller - probably from a newcomer, not an established author. Like poker pros facing data-driven players, traditional authors will have to adapt to a new meta where AI augmentation becomes standard.
7. Cybersecurity Goes Asymmetric Weekly cyber attacks will become the norm for 90% of businesses. The interesting part? Protection will be distributed very unevenly, creating market asymmetries similar to what we see in crypto markets - some players will be fortress-like while others remain vulnerable.
The question isn't whether these changes will happen - it's whether you'll be positioned to adapt when they do. As they say in trading: "The trend is your friend until it ends." Right now, these trends are just beginning.
What do you think? Are you seeing different patterns emerging? Let me know - I'm always curious to hear other perspectives, especially when they challenge my assumptions.